process is frequentist: Nonlinear Function
Created: February 16, 2022
Modified: March 04, 2022

process is frequentist

This page is from my personal notes, and has not been specifically reviewed for public consumption. It might be incomplete, wrong, outdated, or stupid. Caveat lector.

(aka, why frequentists will always make more money)

In the "real" (corporate/governmental) world, most high-level decision making is frequentist, because being senior and influential means you have control over processes (general rules) more than individual decisions.

Frequentist statistics is all about designing processes:

  • given a procedure, how well does it work?
  • What is the best procedure under some criterion?
  • If we do the same thing over and over again, on average how many successes will we see?

By contrast, Bayesian approaches are about particulars: given this set of circumstances and these assumptions, what's the right conclusion to draw?

As a senior decision-maker, you're not doing the science yourself; you're setting up the process by which scientists are trained. It's not your job to write a good paper; it's your job to have a set of rules and a process that produce good papers. It's not your job to make the perfect business decision every time; it's your job to have a process in place that generally produces good business decisions.

Any pursuit that requires coordination of multiple people requires process. Science 'writ large' is inherently frequentist, because the community needs a standard of evidence. There needs to be a process that, if people follow it, generally produces knowledge about the world. Publishing p-values might not be the right process---it might be that the right process is for every paper to specify a Bayesian model and report likelihoods---but ultimately it's still a process and has to be evaluated on frequentist terms.