Created: January 24, 2021
Modified: January 24, 2021
Modified: January 24, 2021
prediction as a model-building exercise
This page is from my personal notes, and has not been specifically reviewed for public consumption. It might be incomplete, wrong, outdated, or stupid. Caveat lector.- A really valuable exercise that I should consider building into my routine is to regularly try to make and write down explicit predictions.
- It's valuable to do this in any domain. I might want to make predictions about:
- World affairs
- US politics
- Economics
- Science and tech, writ broad
- Science or technology in my own areas of interest
- ???
- The process of asking myself "What do I think will happen?" in some domain is valuable. It might be fun, since it lets me think about the domain. It forces me to try to pick out what's important. It requires really building and sharpening a mental model.
- Examples: