AI predictions

In the spirit of prediction as a model-building exercise.

Language modeling:

• system writes publishable poetry: debatably already happened
• system writes a publishable short story / novel: these largely depend on handling long-term context well, and maybe some kind of coarse-to-fine generation (like MuZero but with hierarchical plannig?). Probably doable with next-generation language models and a motivated team of experts, so also probably ~2025?

Dialog:

• a system convincingly and reproducibly passes a Turing test: would not surprise me if this happens before 2025.

Deep generative models (image, video, speech):

• what interesting tasks are even still open? tons of commercial potential and room for optimization of existing techniques, but we can already do amazing stuff.
• we'll have video equivalents of DALL-E (text-guided video generation) as soon as the compute gets there
• system writes and generates a hit pop song: probably a combo of language-modeling techniques (we can already do poetry, which is the rough equivalent) and audio models which are already pretty good

AI for math:

• AI resolves an open research question, as a formally verified proof
• AI writes a novel, publishable math paper

Robotics:

• Manufacturing
• Household
• Self-driving cars

Science:

• Drug discovery

Military:

Computing:

Education: