union bound: Nonlinear Function
Created: October 03, 2021
Modified: March 02, 2022

union bound

This page is from my personal notes, and has not been specifically reviewed for public consumption. It might be incomplete, wrong, outdated, or stupid. Caveat lector.

It's a basic law of probability that, given two events A and B, the probability that at least one of them occurs is given by

P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB).P(A\cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B).

This counts the worlds in which AA happens and the worlds in which BB happens, then subtracts out the worlds which were double-counted.

Sometimes we don't know P(AB)P(A \cap B), i.e., we are not sure whether or how AA and BB co-occur. Since probabilities are nonnegative, we can just omit this term from the equation, turning the equality into an inequality. This is the union bound:

P(AB)P(A)+P(B)P(A\cup B) \le P(A) + P(B)

The bound is tight when AA and BB are disjoint events. It can of course be generalized to multiple events in the obvious way:

P(iXi)iP(Xi).P(\cup_{i}X_i) \le \sum_i P(X_i).