The Bayesian approach to statistics is to 'just use probability theory'. You write down a joint probability distribution over observed and…
Matt Levine explains how a financier might react to losing a billion dollars: Sure sure the risks didn’t work out but you probably have a…
Confidence is a positive [ feedback loop ]. You need a certain amount of confidence to try something hard. Success breeds more confidence…
Fundamental observation is that [ the map is not the territory ]. BUT---there is a real and important distinction between models that are…